Coal - a fossil fuel - is the most important energy source for electricity generation and also forms an essential fuel for the production of steel and cement. A negative characteristic of coal, however, is that it can be labelled as the most polluting energy source due to its high proportion of carbon. Other vital energy sources, such as natural gas, are less polluting but significantly more exhaustive and more susceptible to price fluctuations on the world market. Therefore, the world's industries have increasingly shifted their focus to coal.
At current rates of production (and if new reserves are not found), global coal reserves are estimated to last for around 112 years. The biggest reserves are found in the USA, Russia, China and India.
Top Coal Producers in 2016¹
Country Production Volume
(million tons oil equiv.)
China 1685.7
USA 364.8
Australia 299.3
India 288.5
Indonesia 255.7
Russia 192.8
South Africa 142.4
¹ commercial solid fuels only, i.e. bituminous coal, anthracite (hard coal), lignite and brown (sub-bituminous) coal
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017
Coal investors in Indonesia
Indonesia's Coal Production & Export
Indonesia is one of the world's largest producers and exporters of coal. Since 2005, when it overtook Australia, the country is the leading exporter in terms of thermal coal. A significant portion of its exported thermal coal consists of the medium-quality type (between 5100 and 6100 cal/gram) and the low-quality type (below 5100 cal/gram) for which large demand originates from China and India. According to information presented by Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesian coal reserves are estimated to last around 83 years if the current rate of production is to be continued.
Regarding global coal reserves, Indonesia currently ranks 9th, containing roughly 2.2 percent of total proven global coal reserves according to the most recent BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Around 60 percent of Indonesia's total coal reserves consists of the cheaper lower quality (sub-bituminous) coal that contains less than 6100 cal/gram.
There are numerous smaller pockets of coal reserves on the islands of Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Papua but the three largest regions of Indonesian coal resources are:
1. South Sumatra
2. South Kalimantan
3. East Kalimantan
The Indonesian coal industry is rather fragmented with only a few big producers and many small players that own coal mines and coal mine concessions (mainly in Sumatra and Kalimantan).
Since the early 1990s, when the coal mining sector was reopened for foreign investment, Indonesia witnessed a robust increase in coal production, coal exports and domestic sales of coal. The latter, however, has always been rather insignificant as domestic consumption of coal is relatively small in Indonesia. But in recent years there has been a rapid increase in domestic coal sales because the Indonesian government is committed to its ambitious energy program (implying the construction of various power plants, mostly coal-fired because Indonesia has plenty of coal reserves). Moreover, several big Indonesian mining companies (for example coal miner Adaro Energy) have expanded into the energy sector as prolonged low commodity prices made it unattractive to remain focused on coal exports, hence becoming integrated energy companies that consume their own coal.
Roughly between 70-80 percent of Indonesia's coal production is exported abroad, the remainder is sold on the domestic market.
Indonesian Production, Export, Consumption & Price of Coal:
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Production
(in mln tons) 217 240 254 275 353 412 474 458 461 434
Export
(in mln tons)
163 191 198 210 287 345 402 382 366 343
Domestic
(in mln tons) 61 49 56 65 66 67 72 76 87 91
Price (HBA)
(in USD/ton) n.a n.a 70.7 91.7 118.4 95.5 82.9 72.6 60.1 61.8
Sources: Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) & Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
During the 2000s commodities boom the coal mining industry was very lucrative as coal prices were comfortably high. Hence, many Indonesian companies and wealthy families decided to acquire coal mining concessions on Sumatra or Kalimantan in the late 2000s. Coal became known as the "new gold".
What drove this increase in Indonesia's coal production and export?
Coal is the dominating force in power generation. At least 27 percent of the world's total energy output and more than 39 percent of all electricity is produced by coal-fired power plants due to coal's abundance, its relatively easy and low-cost extraction, and less expensive infrastructure requirements compared to other energy resources.
Indonesia contains abundant reserves in medium and low-quality coal. These types of coal are competitively priced on the international market (partly due to Indonesia's low labor wages).
Indonesia's strategic geographical position towards the giant emerging markets of China and India. Demand for low quality coal from these two countries has skyrocketed as many new coal-fired power plants have been built to supply electricity to their immense populations.
The main export destination countries for Indonesian coal are China, India, Japan and South Korea. During the peak years coal contributed around 85 percent to total state revenue from the mining sector.
Indonesian Government's Benchmark Thermal Coal Price (HBA):
Month 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017
January 109.29 87.55 81.90 63.84 53.20 86.23
February 111.58 88.35 80.44 62.92 50.92 83.32
March 112.87 90.09 77.01 67.76 51.62 81.90
April 105.61 88.56 74.81 64.48 52.32 82.51
May 102.12 85.33 73.60 61.08 51.20 83.81
June 96.65 84.87 73.64 59.59 51.87 75.46
July 87.56 81.69 72.45 59.16 53.00
August 84.65 76.70 70.29 59.14 58.37
September 86.21 76.89 69.69 58.21 63.93
October 86.04 76.61 67.26 57.39 69.07
November 81.44 78.13 65.70 54.43 84.89
December 81.75 80.31 69.23 53.51 101.69
in USD/ton
Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
Future Prospects of the Indonesian Coal Mining Sector
The commodities boom of the 2000s generated significant profits for companies engaged in the export of coal. The rise in commodity prices was - to a large extent - triggered by accelerated economic growth in emerging and developing economies. But this profitable situation changed with the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 when commodity prices went down fast. Indonesia was affected by these external factors as exports of commodities (in particular coal and palm oil) account for around 50 percent of total Indonesian exports, thus limiting the country's GDP growth in 2009 to 4.6 percent (which still represents an impressive number, largely supported by domestic consumption). From the second half of 2009 until the beginning of 2011 a sharp rebound in global coal prices occurred. However, reduced global economic activity has lessened demand for coal, thus resulting in a downward trend of coal prices between early 2011 and mid-2016.
Apart from sluggish global economic growth (and the hard landing of China's economy), there was also another factor at play that caused low coal prices. During the lucrative 2000s commodities boom many new coal mining companies were established in Indonesia while existing coal miners raised investment to expand production capacity. This caused a severe supply glut that was exacerbated by coal miners' eagerness in the years 2010-2013 to produce and sell as much coal as possible - amid low global coal prices - in order to generate revenue and profit.
In the second half of 2016 coal prices surged to levels last seen in early 2014, hence giving some fresh air to the mining industry. This price increase was triggered by the somewhat recovering crude oil prices, rising domestic coal demand in Indonesia on the back of the completion of new coal-fired power plants, but more importantly because of China's coal mining policies. China, the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, decided to cut its domestic coal output. The key reason why China wanted to push the coal price into higher territory in the second half of 2016 is that China's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in the domestic banking sector had risen to 2.3 percent in 2015. The main reason that explains this rising NPL ratio was that China's coal mining companies had trouble to repay debt.
However, considering global economic activity is still rather bleak, the direction of coal prices in the short to medium term are highly dependent on China's coal policies.
Despite global awareness regarding the importance to reduce nation's dependency on fossil fuels, developments in renewable energy resources do not show an indication that the world's dependency on fossil fuels (especially coal) will be reduced significantly in the foreseeable future, thus coal is set to remain a key energy resource. Clean coal technologies in coal mining, however, are expected to gain significance in the future (partly due to commercial relevance) and Indonesia is expected to become heavily involved in that process being a major player in the coal mining sector. These clean coal technologies focus on the reduction of emissions produced by coal-fired power generation but lack sustained progress yet. Upstream activities connected to coal mining, such as the development of coalbed methane (CBM) reservoirs of which Indonesia contains great potential, has begun to receive attention recently.
Indonesian government policy will affect the nation's coal mining industry. To secure domestic supplies, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources orders coal producers to reserve a specific amount of their production for domestic consumption (domestic market obligation). Moreover, the government can adjust its export tax to discourage coal exports. The government aims for more domestic consumption of coal as it wants coal to supply around 30 percent of the country's energy mix by 2025:
Indonesia's Energy Mix:
Energy Mix
2011 Energy Mix
2025
Oil 50% 23%
Coal 24% 30%
Gas 20% 20%
Renewable Energy 6% 26%
Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
Updated on 5 July 2017
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Coal Mining Update Indonesia: Production Down, Consumption Up
Coal Mining Update Indonesia: Production Down, Consumption Up
10 Oktober 2016 |
Coal Consumption
Coal Industry
Coal Price
Coal Export
Coal Production
Coal Mining
Coal
Many Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have seen their shares surge in the past couple of months supported by the recovering coal prices. Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, soared from USD $50.92 per metric ton in February 2016 to USD $63.93 per ton in September.
While many analysts have spoken or written about the demise of coal as a key source for energy generation, rebounding coal prices in 2016 have taken markets by surprise. Thermal coal (both physical and futures) prices soared between 50 and 80 percent since the start of the year. This rally might continue into the first quarter of 2017.
What Causes the Coal Price Rally?
To answer this question we have to look at the supply and demand mechanism. Supplies in key coal producing countries have declined. Indonesia is one of these key countries. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016, Indonesia's coal production fell 14.4 percent (y/y) to 241.1 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) in 2015 from 281.7 Mtoe in the preceding year. This was the first time that BP saw Indonesia's coal output declining on a year-on-year basis. This decline is attributed to a fall in global coal demand in preceding years, particularly in China, that caused financial troubles for local miners that therefore reduced - or completely shut down - their operations in 2015 and 2016.
Meanwhile, Indonesia's coal consumption rose 15 percent (y/y) to 80.3 Mtoe in 2015, from 69.8 Mtoe in the preceding year (Indonesia is now the world's 8th largest coal consumer). Rising consumption is fueled by the government's ambitious program to expand the nation's power capacity to 35,000 MW by 2019. The majority of new power plants are coal-fired, a logical option given that Indonesia has abundant coal supplies and prices are still low. Coal already is the biggest source for power generation. According to BP coal contributes 41.4 percent to Indonesia's total energy consumption, followed by oil (37.6 percent of the total).
Not only in Indonesia but also in Europe and Asia coal demand is growing. The recent price rally is specifically attributed to rising demand from China, the world's largest energy consumer. Although China's coal demand had fallen in recent years, there has been a surge of coal imports into China in recent months as local authorities capped domestic coal mining output (to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement) and therefore turned to imports again.
Besides authorities' encouragement to curtail coal production (a strategy to boost global coal prices and safeguard future supplies), coal production in Indonesia and Australia have also declined this year due to a prolonged wet season in the key coal producing regions.
Indonesian Government's Benchmark Thermal Coal Price (HBA):
Month 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016
January 109.29 87.55 81.90 63.84 53.20
February 111.58 88.35 80.44 62.92 50.92
March 112.87 90.09 77.01 67.76 51.62
April 105.61 88.56 74.81 64.48 52.32
May 102.12 85.33 73.60 61.08 51.20
June 96.65 84.87 73.64 59.59 51.87
July 87.56 81.69 72.45 59.16 53.00
August 84.65 76.70 70.29 59.14 58.37
September 86.21 76.89 69.69 58.21 63.93
October 86.04 76.61 67.26 57.39
November 81.44 78.13 65.70 54.43
December 81.75 80.31 69.23 53.51
in USD/ton
Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
Indonesian Production, Export, Consumption & Price of Coal:
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Production
(in million tons) 217 240 254 275 353 412 474 458 461
Export
(in million tons)
163 191 198 210 287 345 402 382 366
Domestic
(in million tons) 61 49 56 65 66 67 72 76 87
Price (HBA)
(in USD/ton) n.a n.a 70.7 91.7 118.4 95.5 82.9 72.6 60.1
Sources: Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) & Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
However, coal remains the second-most attractive fuel (after crude oil), worldwide, for power generation. Especially in emerging markets authorities are developing coal-fired power plants, including Indonesia, to boost the countries' electrification ratios to serve the burgeoning middle classes. The cheap price of coal has made it attractive to use this dirty fuel and thus boosts coal demand.
Although there is a global push for cleaner energies and a reduction to greenhouse gas emissions - which has made funds and investors ditch coal assets - coal will remain a key commodity in the next decades, particularly as the development of clean energies, including geothermal energy and coalbed methane (CBM), go rather slow. Such slow development undermines nations agreement - in Paris last year - to curb fossil fuel usage by unprecedented rates of decarbonization.
Investors who are interested to invest in shares of listed Indonesian coal miners are advised to monitor companies' ability to extend coal contracts and miners' ability to diversify their business (for example into power generation). For example, coal miner Adaro Energy's shares have surged 168 percent so far this year supported by the company's expansion into the power generation sector.
Last Update: 5 Jul 2017
Mining Index Indonesia Stock Exchange
Company P: 5 Jul 2017 P: 4 Jul 2017 Gain/Loss P/E ttm Yield % Gain/Loss YTD
Adaro Energy
ADRO
1,620 1,580 2.53% N/A 0.00% -6.90%
Atlas Resources
ARII
520 520 0.00% N/A 0.00% 33.33%
Bara Jaya Internasional
ATPK
194 194 0.00% N/A 0.00% 0.00%
Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal
BORN
50 50 0.00% N/A 0.00% 0.00%
Berau Coal Energy
BRAU
82 82 0.00% N/A 0.00% 0.00%
Baramulti Suksessarana
BSSR
1,500 1,480 1.35% N/A 0.00% 6.38%
Bumi Resources
BUMI
344 360 -4.44% N/A 0.00% 26.47%
Bayan Resources
BYAN
7,200 7,200 0.00% N/A 0.00% 20.00%
Darma Henwa
DEWA
50 50 0.00% N/A 0.00% 0.00%
Delta Dunia Makmur
DOID
845 850 -0.59% N/A 0.00% 60.95%
Golden Energy Mines
GEMS
2,800 3,010 -6.98% N/A 0.00% 3.70%
Garda Tujuh Buana
GTBO
260 260 0.00% N/A 0.00% 0.00%
Harum Energy
HRUM
2,030 2,000 1.50% N/A 0.00% -7.73%
Indo Tambangraya Megah
ITMG
17,650 17,650 0.00% N/A 0.00% 2.02%
Resource Alam Indonesia
KKGI
370 372 -0.54% N/A 0.00% -75.58%
Mitrabara Adiperdana
MBAP
2,800 2,700 3.70% N/A 0.00% 33.97%
Samindo Resources
MYOH
660 660 0.00% N/A 0.00% 3.12%
Perdana Karya Perkasa
PKPK
74 74 0.00% N/A 0.00% 48.00%
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam
PTBA
12,100 12,400 -2.42% N/A 0.00% -5.28%
Petrosea
PTRO
1,020 1,025 -0.49% N/A 0.00% 40.69%
Golden Eagle Energy
SMMT
124 121 2.48% N/A 0.00% -15.65%
Permata Prima Sakti
TKGA
1,800 1,800 0.00% N/A 0.00% 0.00%
Toba Bara Sejahtra
TOBA
1,560 1,560 0.00% N/A 0.00% 24.80%
Apexindo Pratama Duta
APEX
1,780 1,780 0.00% N/A 0.00% 0.00%
Ratu Prabu Energi
ARTI
50 50 0.00% N/A 0.00% 0.00%
Benakat Integra
BIPI
84 81 3.70% N/A 0.00% 18.31%
Elnusa
ELSA
282 284 -0.70% N/A 0.00% -34.72%
Energi Mega Persada
ENRG
50 50 0.00% N/A 0.00% 0.00%
Surya Esa Perkasa
ESSA
2,550 2,550 0.00% N/A 0.00% 70.00%
Medco Energi Internasional
MEDC
2,300 2,320 -0.86% N/A 0.00% 70.37%
Radiant Utama Interinsco
RUIS
224 224 0.00% N/A 0.00% -2.61%
Aneka Tambang (Antam)
ANTM
700 705 -0.71% N/A 0.00% -20.90%
Cita Mineral Investindo
CITA
900 900 0.00% N/A 0.00% 0.00%
Cakra Mineral
CKRA
50 50 0.00% N/A 0.00% -26.47%
Central Omega Resources
DKFT
442 442 0.00% N/A 0.00% 29.24%
Vale Indonesia
INCO
1,885 1,855 1.62% N/A 0.00% -32.19%
Merdeka Copper Gold
MDKA
2,200 2,300 -4.35% N/A 0.00% 10.00%
J Resources Asia Pasifik
PSAB
200 200 0.00% N/A 0.00% -16.67%
SMR Utama
SMRU
498 520 -4.23% N/A 0.00% 53.70%
Timah
TINS
735 740 -0.68% N/A 0.00% -33.48%
Citatah Industri Marmer
CTTH
85 87 -2.30% N/A 0.00% 6.25%
Mitra Investindo
MITI
50 50 0.00% N/A 0.00% -23.08%
Combined Total 70,718 71,186 -0.66% 3.36%
Green colour indicates upward movement Red colour indicates downward movement P = price; E = earnings; D = dividend; Yield = D/P "N/A" indicates P/E < 0 (negative earnings) "-" indicates E,D,P or YTD is not available
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